TCPF and the game of chance (plus Bloods)

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Clawd
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Posts: 72
Joined: 06 Feb 2011, 09:18
Location: West Pymble NSW

My overgrown aviary (guinea grass) that is 4.8m*2.3m has one pair of Crimsons who have just gone to nest.

I have been seeking a pair of TCPF and can get some tomorrow from a batch of 22 birds being sold by a gent on behalf of his breeder friend.

These birds come from three breeding pairs. The catch is the birds are pooled in that it is not possible to tell what birds are related. So, my questions are:
1. Thoughts on rolling the dice in terms of getting an unrelated pair
2. Is $140 a pair reasonable? (or $120 a pair if I buy 2 pairs)
3. Would it be better to get two pairs in terms of improving the related pair gamble?
4. Are multiple pairs of TCPF OK given the info provided on my aviary?

Any advice would be gratefully received.

Regards

John Kitchener
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Lachlan1
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Joined: 03 Aug 2014, 21:06
Location: Castle Hill NSW

Firstly congrats on the bloods and hopefully they go through with it.

In regards to the TFPF I would be a little concerned.
1. We can't assume the three pairs bred roughly 7 birds each. The strong likelihood is one or two of the pairs bred a lot more than the others which would throw the chances of you getting unrelated birds pretty slim.
2. It goes without saying it is always better to get an unrelated pair and the fact he hasn't kept records of which pair bred what somewhat implies to me he may not be 100% sure if his own breeding pairs are related or not. 1 generation of inbreeding (not preferable) isn't the end of the world but if it happens a few times it's all bad news.
3. Price seams ok. I must admit to not knowing a huge amount about TCPF but all pairs for sale at singleton last year were between $100-$120.
4. I think you could easily have a couple of pairs in an aviary that size.

Good luck mate!
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TomDeGraaff
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Joined: 25 Jul 2012, 11:04
Location: Melbourne

With respect to the first, I would need to know how many of the 22 were bred by each pair and then sexes within each group of siblings.
Let's assume that the 22 were bred basically one third by each pair ( 33.3%) and each grouping were even males and females (50-50).
Firstly, choose a bird of either sex. Let's say a hen. The chance of getting an unrelated cockbird is 66.6%. I think that's your answer :)
If you get the data I need, let me know :)
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Clawd
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Posts: 72
Joined: 06 Feb 2011, 09:18
Location: West Pymble NSW

Thanks for the comments.

Fortunately, the seller has just rung. He checked with the breeder who advised that each clutch has been rung so that related birds can be identified by ring colour.

The question is one pair or two?

Regards.
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Craig52
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Joined: 11 Nov 2011, 19:26
Location: victoria

Hi John,two pr in that size would be fine.In regards to buying related birds,hopefully they aren't as anyone can put different coloured rings on them after they are caught up just to sell them as unrelated,i would buy the two prs for $120 a pr and then swap the cocks with somebody else.I'm sure Richard A would be quite happy to swap for new blood.
Glad to hear your bloods have gone to nest. Cheers Craig
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