Long Term Weather Forecast

[Misso]

Can any members suggest some good websites for long term weather forecasts?

could be a handy tool for aviculturists; for example: in helping to make decisions on when to put nest boxes in for gouldians in melb.

With jan and feb having the potential to be very hot, an aviculturist could look up a month ahead to get a rough idea on what type of weather to expect, i looked up febs forecast for melbourne, and it didn't seem to have any extreme heat waves, which i hope is the case since i put nest boxes in last week. if i were to see a prediction in the 40's for a few days or week( which we can expect in melb that time of yr) i would maybe hold off a bit longer so as not to ruin a first clutch of eggs.

it doesn't help the cause either when your aviaries are tin roofed with barely any tree cover, so weather pattens play a part in the success i have with my gouldians.

misso

[Diane]

Sure can...you can put your own postcode in and get your local weather.
Lots of other sections such as Breaking weather, radar etc
http://www.eldersweather.com.au/sa/adelaide" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Long range forecast
http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindec ... bleCookies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and 28 day rain forecast
http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindat ... bleCookies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I use these in conjunction with the Foxtel 10 day forecast.

[finchbreeder]

Unfortunately. On a recent disscussion on ABC Radio with a senior weather forcaster, when asked how accurate weather forecasting was. The answer was. 7 days very reliable. 28 days moderately reliable. Longer term, largely predicions on previous patterns. But then we no longer do rain dances, so progress has definately been made. So use the information given, but remember it is not terribly reliable in the longer term.
LML

[vettepilot_6]

It amuses me that weather forecastors can't get the day to day reports accurate ....but can give you (their perception) with absolute certainty what the weather is going to do for the next 100hrs (climate change crock of S%$*t)

[natamambo]

Rob Gell was one of my lecturers many years ago. I'll never forget the study we did mapping predictions from various sources against reality. The most accurate prediction (right about 70% of the time from memory) was "tomorrow will be the same as today" . In those days none of the forecasts beyond 3 days were accurate more than 30% of the time. Of course computer modelling has improved since then but "above or below average" long term predictions don't really help your goal as a run of 28C days will affect averages more than a few days of high and a few days of low but don't provide bird threatening conditions in the same way.

The BOM has a seasonal outlook page http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ Most other long range forecasts are 28 day rainfall forecasts which don't attempt temperature forecasts ie a period could be high rainfall and high temperature as it was around Christmas / New year.

[AMCA26]

Misso i guess it comes back to the breeder again. I was looking at the forecast on the net everyday. Put the boxes in nearly 2 weeks ago as i thought it was time weather wise, and most of the birds looked ready bar a couple but not to far off.
Checked today out of 13 pairs 8 pairs are laying/sitting with 1 pair on 9 eggs which i may have to transfer some to another box. First year hen so will check her eggs again on Sunday.
Dad lives in Mildura so he waits longer even thou they mayb ready and waits for the hotter weather to pass.

[Mortisha]

http://www.bom.gov.au/forecasts/graphic ... bourne.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
click on the map where you live approximately and an info box will pop up giving you a 7 day forecast

I've been using this one for years - it seems to be the most reliable. they update it regularly.
http://www.australianweathernews.com/forecast_OCF.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Diane]

Forgot to say I have a Firefox add on called Weather tracker. It sits in the task bar showing the current temp and the expected forecast for the next week. I have set it so that a pop up alert shows if the temps are under 10C or over 32C and if the wind gets over 25 kph. Works really well.