AY BLUE - SOME BIRDS DEFY STATISTICS

[gouldianpaul]

Hi All,

Many on this forum know the statistical possibilities of what young should be produced from Normals split to both blue and AY. I wanted to share the result of 3 generations of birds from the same bloodline that have shown that stats cannot always be relied upon.

First bird is a normal double split hen (blue & AY)
She is a 3 year old hen who has always been paired with a Normal double split cock with the goal being the AY Blue. Here are her results
2013 - 10 young; 1 AY Blue hen, 3 Blues/AY, 1 Blue, 2 AY possible split blues and 3 possible double splits
2014 - She was kept a s spare so no young produced from her last year
2015 - 8 young; 3 blues/AY, 2 Blue (possible split AY) and 3 possible double splits

So out of 18 young this hen has produced 1 AY Blue, 6 Blue/AY, 3 Blue.....almost 50% of her young have been blue (or AY Blue) when paired to another double split....the stats say 25%.


Bird # 2 is the AY Blue hen produced from hen above in 2013
2014 - Paired to a normal split AY & Blue....16 young produced....only 2 Blue/AY....the other 14 were all splits....stats say 50% of these birds should have been blue and 25% AY Blue
2015 - working on my theory the AY mixed into the Blue will strengthen the blue I paired this bird to a Blue/AY cock.....6 young....3 AY/Blue, 1 Blue/AY and 2 normal double splits....stats say 50% of her birds should have been blue, but she has produced 16% blues.

Bird # 3 is a Normal split AY & Blue from the AY Blue hen above (in 2014)
2015 he was paired to AY Blue hen producing 6 young....2 AY Blue, 2 blue and 2 normal.....stats say 50% should be blue and 25% AY Blue....this bird has produced results similar to stats.

In summary my 3 year old normal split AY & blue hen has produced more than 50% blues when paired to another Normal/AY Blue...well above stats average of 25%. However my AY Blue hen produces much less blues and/or AY Blues than the stats indicate.

I have illustrated these 3 birds to show that stats are just stats and some birds produce a lot more colored birds than you would expect.

As a side note the above 3 birds have been used in my attempt to figure out which combination gives you the best chance of producing AY Blues....next year I will put some pairs of AY/Blue to Blue/AY to see what is produced. No matter what the stats indicate, I will continue to pair some normal split to both AY and Blue as my pairs have shown a tendency to produce more colored birds than expected and as we all know blues produced from splits are the most valuable to your breeding program.

Cheers,
Paul

[Craig52]

You are right Paul,stats can be blown out of the water with alot of mutations but those stats are taken as an average and not gospel. For many generations i had a pr of split blues produce all blues in the nest so maybe the reason i was so successful with them, as they were strong young coming from two splits.
Well done so far Paul. Craig

[BrettB]

Interesting results, but I suspect your numbers are too small to draw any significant conclusions.
It could still be the result of chance.

Cheers
Brett

[Blue Cuban]

Thanks for sharing your results Paul.

Do you think with the strengthening of your blues carrying AY your blues are up to the challenge of breeding colour to colour, or still to early?

Rich.

[finchbreeder]

Statistics become more accurate the longer the sample period. At least in theory. So the 1st birds stats should be closer to the average. Also the larger the sample so if you do the results from all off your pairings over the time period it should come out as correct. Some will be higher, some lower but on average correct. That's why statistics are a reflection of the average. But good to see you have a hen in the higher success percentile.
LML

[gouldianpaul]

Thanks for sharing your results Paul.

Do you think with the strengthening of your blues carrying AY your blues are up to the challenge of breeding colour to colour, or still to early?

Rich.

Hi rich
I'm of the belief the AY will strengthen the blues. That's why I paired my AY blue hen with a blue/AY cock. Only produced 3 young per nest but they are all a good size and seem like they are one of the strongest young this year. Next season I will try 1 pair of blue/AY x blue/AY to test my theory but I still think those young will need to be put to splits or preferably normal to keep bringing in new blood to your stock


Cheers
Paul

[Reubenvg]

Great info Paul

I noticed a similar thing with a pair of Euro yellows I have.

The male is a RH/o PB/w YB
The hen is a RH/o WB YB

75% should be Red Head
25% should be orange Head
50% should be white chest
50% should be purple chest


2014 they had 8 young (6 hens 2 males)
75% had red head
25% Orange
12.5% (1 out of 8) had white chest

2015 they have had 11 young

Can't confirm the head colours yet but seems about 25%/75% again but once again only 1 or maybe 2 out of 11 have white chest, little hard to be a 100% as they are only just showing some colour.
Around 9-10% of 19 young have white chest.

One of the things i enjoy most about breeding birds and in particular mutations is the randomness of the genetics.

I recall having a clutch of 5 identical Red Head, White Breasted, Yellows ( think all 5 were males) out of a pair of RH / Purple chest parents (both must been split WB)

Keep up the story's and information its great

[Blue Cuban]

Hi Paul,

A little off topic but have any of your blues split to AY shown any visual signs they are split to AY?

Rich.

[gouldianpaul]

Hi Paul,

A little off topic but have any of your blues split to AY shown any visual signs they are split to AY?

Rich.

Hi rich
Yes all birds I have stated as split to AY all have the white patch

cheers
paul

[Blue Cuban]

Hi Paul,

A little off topic but have any of your blues split to AY shown any visual signs they are split to AY?

Rich.

Hi rich
Yes all birds I have stated as split to AY all have the white patch

cheers
paul

So you have blues that are displaying these white patches?

Rich.